[{"date": "2026-07-22", "est": 100, "no100": 0.11, "note": "first read \u2014 statewide base-rate, deliberately market-agnostic", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet", "forecast": "ADF&G Special Publication 26-08"}}, {"date": "2026-07-28", "est": 83, "no100": 0.16, "note": "adopted the regional model \u2014 PWS/Central collapse is a reliable early signal, folded in", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet", "forecast": "ADF&G Special Publication 26-08"}}, {"date": "2026-08-02", "est": 73, "no100": 0.19, "note": "fixed completion timing (wk30\u2192wk32) + weak, late ignition confirmed", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet"}}, {"date": "2026-08-04", "est": 74, "no100": 0.18, "note": "Kodiak-led ramp nudges pink up slightly; chum projection made week-aware", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet"}}, {"date": "2026-08-05", "est": 75, "no100": 0.19, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-05T15:30:05.031841+00:00", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet", "market": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAKSALMON"}}, {"date": "2026-08-06", "est": 75, "no100": 0.19, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-06T15:30:04.262961+00:00", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet", "market": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAKSALMON"}}, {"date": "2026-08-07", "est": 77, "no100": 0.17, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-07T15:30:04.989561+00:00", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet", "market": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAKSALMON"}}, {"date": "2026-08-08", "est": 78, "no100": 0.27, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-09T02:49:08.030150+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-09", "est": 70, "no100": 0.26, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-09T16:15:25.079095+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-10", "est": 73, "no100": 0.19, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-11T06:13:45.046574+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-11", "est": 76, "no100": 0.2, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-11T18:14:20.838613+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-12", "est": 79, "no100": 0.23, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-13T06:20:05.099682+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-13", "est": 81, "no100": 0.23, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-13T20:43:45.727549+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-14", "est": 85, "no100": 0.21, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-15T06:44:16.563509+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-15", "est": 87, "no100": 0.22, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-15T16:55:36.636726+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-16", "est": 87, "no100": 0.22, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-16T17:28:07.167523+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}, "note": "corrected from 78: mid-week completion artifact at wk34 rollover (frac 1/7)"}, {"date": "2026-08-17", "est": 87, "no100": 0.23, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-17T17:28:37.443306+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-18", "est": 88, "no100": 0.23, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-19T04:47:05.609126+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-19", "est": 87, "no100": 0.23, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-19T17:13:11.181459+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-20", "est": 85, "no100": 0.23, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-20T17:13:36.335959+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-21", "est": 85, "no100": 0.23, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-21T17:24:22.382165+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-22", "est": 87, "no100": 0.27, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-22T17:41:48.479208+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-23", "est": 87, "no100": 0.27, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-23T15:41:36.708391+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-24", "est": 87, "no100": 0.28, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-24T18:23:21.052524+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-25", "est": 91, "no100": 0.28, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-26T05:28:38.002662+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-26", "est": 93, "no100": 0.27, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-27T07:06:43.692649+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-27", "est": 92, "no100": 0.26, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-27T16:07:04.564271+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-28", "est": 92, "no100": 0.25, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-29T00:34:15.126813+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-29", "est": 93, "no100": 0.26, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-29T20:38:07.225453+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-30", "est": 93, "no100": 0.27, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-30T17:53:07.978209+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-08-31", "est": 92, "no100": 0.28, "fetched_utc": "2026-08-31T21:27:07.893104+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-01", "est": 92, "no100": 0.26, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T18:11:43.183737+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-02", "est": 92, "no100": 0.26, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T05:59:37.727375+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-03", "est": 92, "no100": 0.27, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T16:17:33.305867+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-04", "est": 93, "no100": 0.32, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T21:03:52.215529+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-05", "est": 93, "no100": 0.31, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T07:21:06.211090+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-06", "est": 93, "no100": 0.31, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:21:49.249115+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-07", "est": 93, "no100": 0.31, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T22:37:12.836357+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-08", "est": 93, "no100": 0.31, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:08:01.453574+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-09", "est": 92, "no100": 0.31, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T00:09:14.376914+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-10", "est": 95, "no100": 0.31, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T15:30:04.620169+00:00", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet", "market": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAKSALMON"}}, {"date": "2026-09-11", "est": 92, "no100": 0.31, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T20:54:11.587772+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-12", "est": 95, "no100": 0.42, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T15:30:04.872284+00:00", "src": {"harvest": "https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyfisherysalmon.bluesheet", "market": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAKSALMON"}}, {"date": "2026-09-13", "est": 92, "no100": 0.39, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T03:21:12.879714+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-14", "est": 92, "no100": 0.46, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T15:32:45.353035+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-15", "est": 92, "no100": 0.46, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T15:33:58.964254+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-18", "est": 92, "no100": 0.53, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T17:56:41.549222+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-19", "est": 92, "no100": 0.66, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T16:56:39.115454+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}, {"date": "2026-09-20", "est": 92, "no100": 0.66, "fetched_utc": "2026-09-20T18:00:52.363702+00:00", "src": {"model": "regional_model.py (live reads)"}}]